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Bears, Bad Beats, Battlestar Galactica

Bears, Bad Beats, Battlestar Galactica

The Sixers tried to ruin our night, but Keyonte George said no

Mitchell Lord
November 11, 2023

Photo by Jay Metzger/NBAE via Getty Images

A legendary bad beat on Sharpshooters debut night has to be the least surprising thing ever, right?

The Sixers were up by 17 with 1:47 to play. The line was 9.5 and, at this point, I was roughly 0.3 percent worried.

Then Marcus Sasser nailed a three to cut it to 14 with 1:31 to play. 2.5 percent worried.

Then Ausar Thompson hit a turnaround fadeaway with less than 40 seconds to go to make it a 10-point game. 18.3 percent worried.

Then Tobias Harris missed a layup with 18 seconds to go. 53.6 percent worried.

Then James Wiseman made a layup with seven seconds to go to backdoor it and make it an 8-point game. 187.9 percent worried.

Then, to twist the knife even more, Joel Embiid gathered for a three with the final seconds ticking away. Launched it. Swished it. Game over. Sixers cover. 0.0 percent worried.

They waved it off. Didn’t get it off in time. Sixers win by eight. Pistons cover. Not worried, just dead.

That was the start of our night — but the rest of it went really well. Ani absolutely crushed the Keyonte George assist ladder. Cade Cunningham dished out seven assists. Domantas Sabonis cashed a triple-double. And Luka Doncic embarrassed the Clippers on his way to 56 PRA.

We finished the night 7-5 and up 1.26 units. Hope you tailed.

For transparency, we failed to list the units we were wagering on the other props we liked. We put one unit each on Brandon Miller, Victor Wembenyama and Doncic. We put 0.5 units on Fred Van Vleet, and 0.25 units on Sabonis. From now on, any play we list will be accompanied by how many units we would put on it.

While we have several plays for you today, we won’t be doing a Saturday newsletter moving forward. Instead, we’re going to include any college football plays in the Friday edition. We’ll have one on Sundays for any NFL plays, but we figured giving you a break from us on Saturdays was in everyone’s best interest. Distance makes the heart grow fonder.

Mitch’s Favorite Picks

Washington -8.5 (-105 / DraftKings) — 1 unit

No. 18 Utah @ No. 5 Washington, 3:30 PM EST

This certainly looks like a great matchup at first glance, but I don’t see any way Utah is able to keep this game within single digits.

Washington is coming off a massive win against USC — the remedy for any team struggling and looking to get back on track, apparently — and Michael Penix Jr. is the clear Heisman favorite right now.

The best way to attack Washington is on the ground. They’re 81st in opposing yards per rush and 64th in PFF run defense. The only issue is Utah is dealing with several injuries to its RBs and will likely be relying on freshman Dijon Stanley, who has mustered a single yard on six carries this year.

The Huskies are one of the worst units in Front 7 Havoc (percentage of plays in which the front seven forced a fumble or a TFL), they're much better in DB Havoc (the percentage of plays in which the defensive backs forced a fumble, intercepted the ball or recorded a pass breakup). None of this bodes well for Utah’s poor passing attack — 114th in passing offense, according to PFF.

Utah has a solid defense, apt at forcing long third downs and causing chaos, but they don’t have nearly enough firepower to slow down the best offense in the country for four quarters. Washington is looking to make this a shootout — they’re essentially a lock for at least 35 points every game — and the Utes don't have the ability to hang with them on offense. Washington is rolling here.

Jalen Suggs, over 6.5 REB + AST (+104 / FanDuel) -- 1.5 units

Bucks @ Magic, 6 PM EST

I don’t know if this is an overreaction to Suggs’ last game where he grabbed just two rebounds and had only one assist, but this number at plus money is criminal. Here are Suggs’ rebound + assist totals from the other four games he’s played this year:

11 (four rebounds, seven assists)

11 (six rebounds, five assists)

7 (four rebounds, three assists)

9 (six rebounds, three assists)

Milwaukee allows the sixth most assists to opposing guards, and Suggs is averaging five rebounds and three assists per game to start the season. I’ll happily ride with this at plus money when it’s 1.5 below his season average.

Kyle Lowry, over 13.5 points (+104, FanDuel) -- 1 unit

Heat at Hawks, 7:30 PM EST

I know what you’re thinking, but you just have to trust me on this one. Lowry has been off to a less-than-stellar start to the season, especially from a scoring standpoint. I’m well aware.

Atlanta allows the second most points per game and fifth most threes per game to opposing point guards. Lowry is coming off his best game of the season, putting up 17 points and hitting four of seven threes.

De’Andre Hunter and Clint Capela are two of the stronger defensive threats in the league at their respective positions, and they happen to match up well against Miami’s two best offensive options — Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Lowry will likely be relied on for more offense like he was against Memphis, and that’s good news given Trae Young will be on him most of the game.

A Little Moneyline Sprinkle

FIU ML +340 (FanDuel)-- 0.25 units

Florida International @ Middle Tennessee State, 3:30 PM EST

Florida International hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2019, but they still have a shot to do so if they can come out with a win against Middle Tennessee. Coming off a bye, FIU should be plenty prepared and amped up to take down the Blue Raiders. At +340, it’s worth a sprinkle.