All in on Capela

We didn’t have the best night last night. We finished 4-6 and down 1.6 units. It was annoying.

D’Angelo Russell went bonkers, nearly hitting his point prop in the first quarter, but Austin Reaves (over 23.5 PRA) was mixing up his holidays and turned into a total ghost. He played the fifth-most minutes on the team, but he made just three of his eight shots and finished with 13 PRA.

Nikola Jokic (14+ REB) finished with another triple-double: 32/10/15. The only issue was the 15 was his assists and not rebounds.

Jordan Clarkson (6+ AST) had three assists in the first four minutes of the game, Keyonte George (over 13.5 PTS) scored five of the Jazz’ first 12 points. Clarkson would tally just two more assists the rest of the way, while George added just three more points. Make it make sense.

Cade Cunningham had three assists on the Pistons’ first three baskets of the night. He finished with five.

After a frustrating night, I knew I wanted to do something big tonight. Not to make up for last night, that’s a horrible mentality, but just to bring some excitement into this Thursday evening.

I took some inspiration from Barstool’s Steven Cheah and his Paul George plays last night. It was five total plays, all on George, that risked a total of 6+ units.

It ended up going 3-2 and netting 4.25 units. A helluva night.

I wanted to find something similar for tonight with such a massive slate ahead. This is by no means an everyday thing, but I’ve been cold the past couple nights and am eager to make a big play. And I found one.

Enter, Clint Capela.

Let’s ride.

Record Tracker

Mitch’s Favorites: 16-18 (-1.33 units)

Ani’s Favorites: 14-15 (+0.09 units)

All Other Picks: 31-31 (+3.24 units)

Overall: 61-64 (+2.01 units)

Mitch’s Favorite Picks

Clint Capela, over 22.5 PTS + REB (-115 / FanDuel) — 1.5 units

Clint Capela, double-double (+100 / FanDuel) — 1 unit

Points

Over 11.5 PTS (-122 / FanDuel) — 1 unit

15+ PTS (+195 / FanDuel) — 0.75 units

Rebounds

Over 10.5 REB (-110 / DraftKings) — 1 unit

12+ REB (+135 / FanDuel) — 0.75 units

15+ REB (+435 / DraftKings) — 0.5 units

Hawks @ Spurs, 8 PM EST

Seven total plays, all on Clint Capela, centered around his points and rebounds. I feel like an absolute madman, and this may blow up in my face, but it’s a risk I am eager to take.

We’re risking 6.5 units to win 8.6. Here’s why:

While this 22.5 PTS + REB line is a bit steep for Capela, who’s averaging 20.4 PTS + REB per game this year, I love the matchup and how he’s been playing lately. Capela has hit this mark in four of his last six games.

From October 30 to November 15, Capela was a little gun shy on offense, taking just 4.7 shots a night, thus subsequently scoring just 8.1 PPG. Since then, in the last six games, Capela is taking twice as many shots per game (9.5) and scoring 12.5 PPG.

Capela is very limited on offense — he lives right near the basket. He’s 16th in FGA per game within five feet of the basket and fifth in the last six games. This bodes well for the big man, though, as the Spurs are one of the worst teams at defending that area (22nd in opponent field goal percentage within five feet of the basket) and allow the 4th-most points per game to opposing centers.

Now onto the rebounds.

Capela has been one of the best rebounders in the league for several years. His per-game numbers on the glass are down this year compared to those of recent years (9.8 RPG this year vs. 11.0, 11.9, 14.3, 13.8, 12.7, 10.8 the last six years), but I’d expect that to start to balloon back to what he was doing the last several years.

Jalen Johnson, the Hawks’ third-year standout from Duke, is out 4-6 weeks with a wrist injury. Johnson is averaging more than seven rebounds a night, which leaves a lot of empty boards for Capela to potentially clean up.

Capela is one of the best in the NBA at converting box outs into rebounds, and that should be on full display tonight, as the Spurs are in the bottom ten of the league in boxing out.

In the five games Capela has played this year against other teams that are bottom-ten in boxing out, he’s averaged 12.4 RPG (11 against Washington twice, 12 against Miami, 13 against Charlotte, and 15 against Brooklyn).

Both these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in field goal percentage (Atlanta 15th, San Antonio 24th), so there will be plenty of rebound opportunities for Capela tonight, as the Spurs also allow the 7th-most rebounds per game.

The chips are all in, and Clint Capela is going to lead us to the promised land.

Ani’s Favorite Picks

Gordon Hayward, over 4.5 AST (+100 / FanDuel) — 1 unit 

Hornets @ Nets, 7:30 PM EST

Hayward takes on more of a facilitator role with Lamelo Ball sidelined with an injury. He had six assists in his last game and nine potential assists. He only had four points in a blowout loss against the Knicks but still played 28 minutes.

The Hornets are 8.5-point underdogs to the Nets tonight and Hayward will most likely be defended by a combination of Cameron Johnson and Mikal Bridges who are both excellent defenders. This will force Hayward to pass the ball off more leading to more assist opportunities. 

Steph Curry, over 5.5 AST (+125 / DraftKings) — 1 unit

Clippers @ Warriors, 10 PM EST

With Chris Paul now sidelined with an injury, Curry will have to take on a more pass-first approach and be one of the primary facilitators for the Warriors. After Paul went out with the injury, Curry had 10 potential assists.

He finished the game with six assists and now has tallied six assists in three straight games. The Warriors are only 5-point favorites against the Clippers so this should be a close game in which Curry should play more than 30 minutes.

Paul George, over 9.5 REB + AST (-120 / DraftKings) — 1.5 units 

Clippers @ Warriors, 10 PM EST

Here we go again! We hit this last night, even though it was a mega sweat with George grabbing two rebounds and three assists in the second half of a blowout win against the Kings. If you had told me George had seven assists last night, I would’ve thought he went way over this total, but he barely scraped by.

The good thing about George just barely hitting this is that the line has not moved. He’s now hit this prop in nine straight games and I’m laying 1.5 units on it again tonight against the Warriors. So if the TNF game turns into a blowout (as it’s projected to) just flip the TV over to the Clippers/Warriors game and sweat out the two props I’ve got on deck.

Other Picks We Like

Jalen Brunson, 25+ PTS (-125 / FanDuel) — 0.5 units 

Pistons @ Knicks, 7:30 PM EST

Victor Wembenyama, over 21.5 PTS (-120 / FanDuel) — 1 unit

Hawks @ Spurs, 8 PM EST

Victor Wembenyama, 3+ 3PM (+260 / FanDuel) — 0.25 units 

Hawks @ Spurs, 8 PM EST

Tony Pollard o63.5 RUSH yards (-110 / FanDuel) 1 unit

Seahawks @ Cowboys, 8:15 PM EST