The City of Motherly Love

It’s really lame of me to victory lap a single play when I’ve been as cold as I’ve been — which was astutely noted by my dear mother.

But that’s what I’m going to do. My official play was Texans +5.5, but I did say the +200 ML was worth a sprinkle. And worth it, it was.

The Texans kicked the Bengals’ ass. With so many self-inflicted errors and fortunate Bengals bounces, the Texans could’ve easily won this game by a couple more scores. But I digress. The Texans won outright and I earned a much-needed dub. The high didn’t last long, though.

The Falcons are horrible (Welcome to the list, fellas). DeAndre Ayton decided to take the night off from rebounding (He had 10+ boards in all but one game this year, so, naturally, he had two boards at halftime and finished with seven. That tracks.)

Ani missed on all three of his favorite picks, but we cleaned up with our other props. Beal, Addison, Flowers, Irwin and 1/3 of the Powell ladder all cashed. Not the best, but far from the worst.

Onward. Forward.

Mitch’s Favorite Picks

Kristaps Porzingis, over 2.5 3PM (+115 / DraftKings) — 0.75 units; 4+ 3PM (+265 / DraftKings) — 0.5 units; 5+ 3PM (+650 / FanDuel) — 0.25 units

Knicks @ Celtics, 7:30 PM EST

We’re climbing the ladder with Porzingod tonight against the Knicks. I’m not sure if it has anything to do with them being his former team, but Porzingis seems to have a little more success from beyond the arc whenever he suits up against the Knicks (41.2 percent on 68 attempts in nine games).

In his last four games against the Knicks, he’s knocked down five, five, four and four from deep. He’s only hit the 2.5 3PM mark in two contests this year — one coming against the Knicks (5) in the season opener — but he’s been chucking lately, hoisting at least six threes in three of his last four games. He’s also knocking down threes this year at a career-best 39.5 percent clip.

I know I’m off to a rough start, sitting at a measly 2-6 record and down more than four units, but I’m willing to roll the dice on and root for a Porzingis triples parade tonight in Boston to help get me back on track.

Scottie Barnes, over 20.5 PTS (-105 / FanDuel) — 1 unit | Scottie Barnes, over 1.5 3PM (-111 / FanDuel) — 1 unit

Wizards @ Raptors, 7:30 PM EST

Betting on a bounce-back game when you’ve hit two of your past eight bets is certainly risky, but I like Barnes in this matchup against Washington.

Barnes has gone 4-15 from the field in each of his last two games, scoring just ten and 14 points, respectively. But these were his point totals in the six games prior: 30, 24, 21, 20, 24, and 22 — surpassing this 20.5 line in five of six.

The Wizards allow the most points per game to opposing wings and the second-most threes. They’re a poor defensive unit as a whole, ranking 26th in defensive rating. In the two games he’s played this year against teams with a bottom-five defensive rating (Spurs and Bucks), Barnes scored 30 points and 21 points, respectively, and knocked down five threes and four threes, respectively.

I’m trusting Barnes to get his shot back tonight.

Ani’s Favorite Picks

Scottie Barnes, over 34.5 PTS + REB + AST (-115 / FanDuel) — 1 unit

Wizards @ Raptors, 7:30 PM EST

The NBA slate tonight is tricky with three of the four games having such high spreads. There is a chance this game turns into a blowout, but Barnes has been a usage monster all season. Plus OG Anunoby is questionable tonight, which would bump up Barnes usage even more.

Barnes is averaging 20.2 PPG, 9.8 RPG and 5.8 APG on the season. The Wizards don’t play any defense, but we do need them to keep this one close so Barnes plays at least 30 minutes in this contest. I also think there’s value in sprinkling a half unit on Barnes to record a double-double at +135.

Marvin Mims Jr., over 19.5 REC yards (-110 / DraftKings) — 1 unit | 25+ REC yards (+110 / DraftKings) — 0.75 units | 40+ REC yards (+295 / DraftKings) — 0.45 units | 50+ REC yards (+500 / DraftKings) — 0.2 units

Broncos @ Bills, 8:15 PM EST

This seems like a bet that’s dead on arrival if you look at Mims’ recent game log. He hasn’t surpassed four receiving yards in his last three games, which includes two goose eggs in his last two games. During the bye week, head coach Sean Payton and the other Denver coaches have been preaching on how they want to involve Mims more in the offense.

I don’t know if this is just coach speak and I’m going to get burned or if the Broncos are truly going to involve the talented rookie more in the offense. Either way, the initial line is low enough — as are the ladder plays — where he can hit all the props on just one play.

Chargers Gonna Charger

The NFL product has been rather lackluster this year, but yesterday was awesome.

The Texans upset the Bengals, 30-27, in a game that, surprisingly, had a lot of AFC playoff implications. The Packers had the ball on the Steelers’ 16-yard-line with three seconds left, trailing 23-19, and a shot to win with a touchdown. Josh Dobbs, propelled by the power of Creed, led the Vikings to their fifth-straight win and kept their playoff hopes alive after they tragically lost Kirk Cousins for the rest of the season to a ruptured Achilles. The Browns stunned the vaunted Ravens and won on a last-second FG after trailing by two touchdowns with 9:44 to play. But, like seemingly every other week, nothing topped the Chargers game.

After what looked like a potential blowout when the Lions grabbed a 24-10 lead in the second quarter, the Chargers fought back and tied the game at 31 with less than 12 minutes to play.

Just look at that last quarter of the chart. It looks like a damn heartbeat. The Chargers had a 68-percent chance to cover the two-point spread with eight minutes to go in the third quarter. Then the Lions scored a touchdown and had a 90-percent chance to cover. A Chargers rebuttal gave them an 80-percent chance to cover. Another Lions touchdown with under eight to play gave them a 92-percent chance to cover. Then a fourth-down, 38-yard score to Keenan Allen with 3:34 to go had the Chargers sitting with a 93-percent chance to cover.

They didn’t cover. I’m shocked.

Other Props We Like

Kevin Huerter, over 18.5 PTS + REB (-113 / FanDuel) — 1 unit

Cavaliers @ Kings, 10 PM EST

Jrue Holiday, over 5.5 REB (+104 / FanDuel) — 1 unit

Knicks @ Celtics, 7 PM EST

Bilal Coulibaly, 12+ PTS (+475 / DraftKings) — 0.25 units

Wizards @ Raptors, 7:30 PM EST

RJ Barrett, 3+ 3PM (+200 / FanDuel)

Knicks @ Celtics, 7 PM EST

Khalil Shakir, over 35.5 REC yards (-110 / FanDuel)

Broncos @ Bills, 8:15 PM EST

* If you like pain, join us again for another Poole party. Jordan Poole’s line is down to 16.5 points, and one of these days, he’s going to make a splash.

Record Tracker

Mitch’s Favorites: 2-6 (-4.3 units)

Ani’s Favorites: 4-4 (-0.2 units)

All Picks: 14-17 (-2.2 units)