My Friend's Brilliant Blackjack Strategy

There’s no way to sugarcoat what’s been happening. It’s ugly. Real ugly. While Ani went 2-1 on his favorite picks on Tuesday, I lost another multi-unit pick. Jokic hitting 14+ and 16+ rebounds at +115 and +250, respectively, was awesome. The Nuggets failing to cover a 4.5-point spread against the worst team in the NBA since November 1… not awesome. Infuriating, honestly.

I’ve had three multi-unit picks in this newsletter: the horrible Sixers beat, the even-worse Washington beat, and the Nuggets three-point win on a 4.5-point spread on Tuesday.

In a world where Joel Embiid’s three at the buzzer counted or Tobias Harris remembers how to make a layup, where Alphonzo Tuputala actually brings the football with him into the end zone or the last-minute field goal isn’t blocked, and where the Nuggets hit one more bucket at any point in the game, my record is 7-8 and I’m up 1.9 units. Instead, we’re sitting at 4-11 and 6.5 units in the hole. Not great.

One of my best friends, Zack, used to play a lot of blackjack on the DraftKings app while we lived together in Philadelphia several years ago. His strategy was simple: Bet a dollar, but if you lose the hand, you double the bet, because you’re bound to win again at some point. If you win the bet, you bet a dollar again.

This made sense, until you consider the exponential growth of the money lost. That one-dollar hand he lost immediately turned into a two-dollar hand. Another loss turned that into a four-dollar hand. After nine straight losses, you’re looking at a $512 bet. If you’ve ever played blackjack, you know how easy it is (a lot of times suspiciously easy) to lose nine straight hands, especially on the DraftKings app.

This strategy worked for Zack, until one day he lost more than $300 in quite literally less than 30 seconds.

Today, Zack no longer gambles.

The point of that story was not to say I’m going to start throwing 3+, 4+, or 5+ units down on certain plays. It was more to highlight the confidence Zack had that he was eventually going to win his next bet. Let’s be a goldfish and forget about the past few nights and shift into Zack’s mentality: we’re winning our next bets.

Mitch’s Favorite Picks

Kyle Lowry, over 8.5 REB + AST (+100 / FanDuel) — 1 unit

Nets @ Heat, 7:30 PM EST

This is a hideous bet. It’s not sexy by any means. For starters, Kyle Lowry has been pretty awful this year. He’s averaging 7.2 PPG, his lowest mark since his rookie year in 2006, and he’s averaging his fewest amount of assists per game (4.8) over the past 14 years.

But it’s really a simple reasoning behind the bet. Lowry is averaging nine combined rebounds and assists per game this year. That’s more than this line. And you can get this line at plus-money on FanDuel. If I’m getting plus-money on a line that is less than the player’s seasonal average, I’m taking it.

He hasn’t hit this mark in the past three games, but I’ll give him a pass for the game last night. He had four fouls and only played 14 minutes, basically getting an impromptu night off. Hopefully the fresh legs help him tonight.

Jaime Jaquez Jr., over 13.5 PTS + REB (-105 / DraftKings) — 1.5 units

Nets @ Heat, 7:30 PM EST

I know Ani is also on Jaquez tonight, and it makes sense. The rookie standout from UCLA is starting to come into his own. His minutes have skyrocketed since Tyler Herro went down with an ankle injury, going from just over 19 minutes per game in the first seven games this year to 34.5 minutes per game over the past three.

In those three games, his production has gone up too: 7.4 PPG (50% FG, 25% 3PT) and 3 RPG up to 16 PPG (50% FG, 33% 3PT) and 5 RPG.

Even before the minutes boost, Jaquez has gone over this total five times in his last six games. He looks much more comfortable and is taking more shots as he earns his minutes. Brooklyn also allows the most points per game to opposing small forwards. At -105, I would take this line even if it was set at 16.5.

Ani’s Favorite Picks

Trenton Irwin, over 33.5 REC yards (-114 / FanDuel) — 1 unit

Bengals @ Ravens, 8:15 PM EST

I’m going back to the well with Irwin’s receiving yards on Thursday Night Football. He had a 32-yard touchdown early in the first quarter last weekend, and if it wasn’t for a catch late in the fourth quarter, it would’ve turned into a horrible beat. 

Irwin’s production skyrockets when Tee Higgins is not in the lineup and that will be the case tonight in Baltimore. Earlier this season without Higgins, Irwin drew ten targets and had eight catches for 60 yards. He is also a downfield threat, so he could hit this prop on just one catch. 

I expect the Bengals to be playing from behind in tonight’s contest as well, so a positive game script would favor the third-year receiver out of Stanford.

Jaime Jaquez Jr., over 9.5 points (+104 / FanDuel) — 1 unit

Nets @ Heat, 7:30 PM EST

I hope I’m not chasing here, but Jaquez has been a consistent scoring option off the bench for the Heat lately. Tyler Herro is still sidelined with an injury so Jaquez usage has gone up in recent games. He has played at least 30 minutes in three straight games and is shooting 50 percent from the field during that stretch.

The Nets struggle to defend against wings, so this is a plus matchup for Jaquez, as well. Since he comes off the bench, Jaquez won’t see a lot of Mikal Bridges or Cam Johnson which will also benefit his offensive game tonight.

Other Picks We Like

Lonnie Walker, over 9.5 PTS (-118 / FanDuel) — 0.5 units

Nets @ Heat, 7:30 PM EST

Day’Ron Sharpe, over 5.5 REB (-122 / FanDuel) - 1 unit | 8+ REB (+200) — 0.5 units

Nets @ Heat, 7:30 PM EST

Keaton Mitchell, over 37.5 RUSH yards (-114 / FanDuel) — 1 unit

Bengals @ Ravens, 8:15 PM EST

Louisiana Monroe +9.5 (-104 / FanDuel) — 0.5 units

Lousiana Tech @ Louisiana Monroe, 7:30 PM EST

Andrew Wiggings, 8+ REB (+420 / FanDuel) — 0.25 units

Thunder @ Warriors, 10 PM EST

Record Tracker

Mitch’s Favorites: 4-11 (-6.5 units)

Ani’s Favorites: 6-10 (-2.7 units)

All Picks: 23-35 (-7.8 units)