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Mitchy From the Block
Lopez and Turner came through last night
Mitchell Lord
December 08, 2023
The paparazzi really is everywhere. They leaked some footage of me, Myles Turner and Brook Lopez before the Pacers/Bucks game last night.
The two came through, hitting both of my blocks props. Turner (over 1.5 BLK) had one in the first quarter, and Lopez (over 2.5 BLK) had two. It took both of them until the fourth quarter to get their winning blocks, but it was worth the wait for two plus-money hits.
Ani’s scorched-Earth heater finally cooled down. He was mere seconds away from having his first 0-for night in almost a month. Tyrese Haliburton (over 27.5 PTS) finished with 27. CJ McCollum (over 5.5 AST) never had a real chance to touch his line with the Pelicans losing by 40+ in the third quarter.
Enter, Allen Robinson (over 11.5 REC yards). He had two targets and zero catches with seven seconds left in the game. With one final play, Mitch Trubisky found Robinson open for a 21-yard completion. Night (somewhat) saved. You take what you can get.
Wasn’t the best night, wasn’t the worst. But we’re back again for more.
Let’s ride.
Record Tracker 📈
Mitch’s Favorites: 23-27 (-1.5 units) ❄️
Ani’s Favorites: 24-19 (+8.4 units) 🔥
All Other Picks: 36-38 (+1.3 units) 🍳
Overall: 83-84 (+8.2 units) 🥖
Mitch’s Favorite Picks 🔒
Jaren Jackson Jr., 20+ PTS (+105 / FanDuel) — 1 unit
Timberwolves @ Grizzlies, 8 PM EST
Last night, both of my favorites were plus-money. Tonight, I’m sticking with the same theme. Three favorites. Three plus-money plays.
The first one is this Jaren Jackson Jr. points prop.
Jackson has hit this mark in each of his last two games — including a 37-point night last Saturday — and in three of his last four.
Rudy Gobert is arguably the best defender in NBA history, but Jackson and Gobert just squared off a couple weeks ago. Despite a horrid 4-14 night from the field, Jackson was still able to drop 18 points.
Photo from NBAE via Getty Images
Jackson is certainly not the most efficient big man (42.7 FG%, 28.6 3P%), but he’s been much more efficient the past two games, shooting 56 percent from the field and 36 percent from beyond the arc.
At plus-money, this is worthwhile play.
Trae Young, over 10.5 AST (+108 / FanDuel) — 1 unit
Hawks @ Sixers, 7 PM EST
This definitely looks like a steep line at first glance, but I really don’t think it is. Young is averaging 10.6 assists per game this year, which is second in the NBA to Tyrese Haliburton’s 12.1.
He’s also hit this mark in two of his past four games, with the two misses being a nine-assist night and a ten-assist night.
The Sixers allow the sixth-most assists per game, and Young is averaging 12.2 assists per game in his last five games against them, dating back to last season. He surpassed this 10.5 mark in three of those five games, including the one game from this season.
Derrick White, 15+ PTS (+140 / FanDuel) — 0.75 units
Knicks @ Celtics, 7:30 PM EST
I think +140 on this line is just disrespectful. White, who’s averaging 14.5 points per game this year, has cleared this mark in four of his last five contests, with the one miss being a 14-point performance in which he attempted just seven shots.
The Knicks allow the fourth-most points per game to opposing guards and the second-most threes per game.
White does possess that tendency to score just a handful of points on any given night, but still affect the game from all other angles, which is a frustrating player to bet on. But given his recent performance, plus how frequently he’s been getting to the line over the past five games, I think 15 points is more than doable, especially if we’re getting +140 odds on it.
Ani’s Favorite Picks 🔒
Nikola Jokic, over 22.5 REB + AST(-140 / DraftKings) — 1 unit
Rockets @ Nuggets — 9 PM EST
The last time the Nuggets played the Rockets, I played the over on Jokic’s rebounds prop and got burned, as he only had 10 rebounds — but he did finish with 15 assists. Jokic dominates the Rockets every time he faces them, and this is already their fourth meeting this season.
Jokic has tallied 25, 27 and 32 rebounds + assists in the three games against the Rockets this season. I like the over 12.5 rebounds from Jokic in this matchup too, but just in case he comes up short in that department, taking the rebounds + assists is a nice pivot.
Jamal Murray is also back for the Nuggets now which will help Jokic’s assist numbers.
Cade Cunningham, over 7.5 AST (+124 / FanDuel) — 1.5 units
Pistons @ Magic, 7 PM EST
I’m surprised this line is so low as Cunningham has gone over this number in three straight games and is averaging 7.4 assists per game this season. Bojan Bogdanovic is also back for the Pistons which takes the scoring load off of Cunningham’s shoulders and is a reliable scorer which should help with Cunningham’s assist numbers.
AP Photo/Paul Sancya
Cunningham had 17 potential assists in his last outing, so he’s getting plenty of opportunities to tally assists.
Nic Claxton, over 10.5 REB (+116 / FanDuel) — 1.5 units
Wizards @ Nets, 7:30 PM EST
We’ve been attacking the Wizards with opposing centers this season and that’s not stopping tonight in Brooklyn. In his last two meetings against the Wizards, Claxton tallied 23 and 25 points + rebounds.
He had 13 rebounds in his previous meeting against the Wizards this season in only 28 minutes. As long as Claxton stays out of foul trouble and the game stays competitive, Claxton should easily hit this number tonight.
The Wizards are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, and Daniel Gafford might be the worst starting center in the NBA on one of the worst teams in the league, as well.
Other Picks We Like
Coby White, 25+ PTS (+250 / FanDuel) — 0.5 units
Bulls @ Spurs, 8:30 PM EST
Kristaps Porzingis, 3+ 3PM (+190 / FanDuel) — 0.5 units
Knicks @ Celtics, 7:30 PM EST
Tyrese Maxey, over 25.5 PTS (-115 / DraftKings) — 0.75 units
Hawks @ Sixers, 7 PM EST
Franz Wagner, over 10.5 REB + AST (+100 / FanDuel) — 1 unit
Pistons @ Magic, 7 PM EST
Dejounte Murray, over 35.5 PTS + REB + AST (-111 / FanDuel) — 1 unit