Retiring from the NBA

Going 2-0 on my favorites after a week off to celebrate Christmas made me want to take another week off to celebrate the new year. I’m hoping that’s gonna help us string that good luck along for the start of 2024.

Doing this newsletter has been fun, but it has definitely put on full display that I am horrible at betting professional basketball. Now that it’s a new year, I think it makes sense to start showcasing our records by sport, not just by favorites and other picks.

Going through and calculating that wasn’t the most inspiring thing. Betting on the NFL, college basketball and college football combined, I’m 11-8 and +5.1 units.

Pretty good!

Betting on the NBA, I’m 18-28 and -8.6 units.

Horrific.

I think it’s time to wave goodbye to the NBA (for now) and see what other sports I can suck at betting.

Record Tracker 📈

Mitch’s Favorites 🔒

Avalanche / Stars, over 6.5 (+100 / FanDuel) — 0.75 units

Avalanche @ Stars, 8 PM EST

The NHL it is!

Two of the best teams in the NHL and two division rivals squaring off, and I think it could result in a high-scoring affair.

The Avalanche are incredibly fast, but they also play at an incredibly fast pace. I’ll be curious to see how the Stars fare in keeping up, but I would expect more shots on net than usual.

Nathan MacKinnon has been on a tear, tallying 22 points over his last ten games, which could prove to be too much for the Stars’ defense.

The Avalanche average the seventh-most penalty minutes per game, and the Stars are solid on the power play, scoring at a 22 percent clip.

I think this a worthy play, especially at plus-money.

Lightning ML -128 (FanDuel) — 1.5 units

Lightning @ Wild, 8 PM EST

The Wild have lost three straight games since two of their most important players — Kirill Kaprizov and goalie Filip Gustavsson — were both injured on Saturday against the Jets.

On Tuesday, the Wild lost another valuable piece in defenseman Jared Spurgeon. The three of them join a group of injured Wild players that was already pretty substantial.

Without Gustavsson, the Wild are forced to turn to Marc-Andre Fluery, who has been rough this year, playing to an .896 save percentage.

The Wild average the fourth-most penalty minutes per game, which doesn’t bode well against a Lightning team that has drawn the sixth-most penalties this year and has the third-best power play percentage.

At -128, I’ll buy low on Tampa.

Ani’s Favorites 🔒

Damian Lillard, over 26.5 PTS (-105 / FanDuel) — 1.5 units

Bucks @ Spurs, 7:30 PM EST

The Bucks are coming off two straight losses to the Pacers and get a great matchup against one of the worst teams in the NBA tonight in the Spurs. San Antonio gives up 122.8 points per game, which is fourth-worst in the league. Their defense is vulnerable against guards as they just gave up a combined 50 points to Ja Morant and Desmond Bane two days ago.

Lillard also loves to play against the Spurs, dating back to his time with the Blazers. Earlier this season, Lillard scored 40 points against them and scored 37 in each matchup against San Antonio before that. 

Back Lillard to have a big game against the Spurs tonight in a match that has a total of 248.5

Jamal Murray, over 23.5 PTS (-105 / FanDuel) — 1.5 units

Nuggets @ Warriors, 10 PM EST

Murray is averaging 19.7 points per game on the season and loves playing against the Warriors. He’s scored over this number in three straight games against Golden State including 25 points against them on Christmas Day.

The Nuggets are only 3.5-point favorites, so we should see a pretty closely contested game in Golden State tonight. The total is set at 235, so there will be plenty of scoring opportunities for Murray tonight as well.

Other Picks We Like

Giannis Antetokounmpo, over 6.5 AST (+115 / FanDuel) — 1 unit

Bucks @ Spurs, 7:30 PM EST