The Return of the King

I’m back, baby.

De’Anthony Melton is now an official Sharpshooters King™️, joining Jaime Jaquez. Melton was the focal point of both of my plays on Friday (over 12.5 PTS and over 2.5 3PM); he hit both, giving me my first unblemished night in quite some time.

Am I actually back? Probably not. But it helps to have some confidence.

Ani got royally fucked on Friday.

Jalen Suggs was scratched from the lineup, so the pick was void. Classic.

Mitchell Robinson (over 11.5 REB) finished the night with eight rebounds. In the two games sandwiching that eight-board performance (last night and last Wednesday night), Robinson had 14 and 15 rebounds, respectively. That checks out.

Ausar Thompson (over 25.5 PTS + REB) had 18 combined points and rebounds at halftime. Then, just one minute and 45 seconds into the third quarter, after grabbing one more rebound, Thompson picked up his third and fourth foul. He was subbed out, and he never checked back in. He finished with 19 combined points and rebounds. What else is new?

Mitch’s Favorite Picks

Dorian Thompson-Robinson, under 172.5 PASS yards (-110 / DraftKings) — 1 unit

Steelers @ Browns, 1 PM EST

The first under in Sharpshooters history. What a moment. I’m taking this line for a couple reasons.

First, I don’t think the Browns will be throwing the ball all that much. Thompson-Robinson was horrendous in his start against Baltimore (19-36, 121 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT). I do think he’ll be better today, but I don’t think he’ll throw the ball 36 times. I expect the Browns to pound the rock here against a middle-of-the-road Steelers rushing defense.

Second, there is a very real chance that Thompson-Robinson gets benched for PJ Walker. If DTR looks like he did against the Ravens in the first half today, I don’t think Kevin Stefanski will wait to sit him.

I think this is strong value at -110.

Browns -2.5 (-105 / FanDuel) — 0.75 units

Steelers @ Browns, 1 PM EST

I know I’ll probably get a few text messages about this one from some of my friends who are Steelers fans, especially if this one ends up not hitting. Buttttt, I just don’t think the Steelers are any good, despite their 6-3 record.

I know the Browns are without Deshaun Watson and that DTR was horrible in his limited playing time, but I think the Browns will live on the ground, something the Steelers aren’t great at stopping (18th in EPA per rush).

The Browns have the arguably the best defense in football (1st in EPA per play, 7th in PFF defensive grading). Kenny Pickett is…underwhelming. I think the Browns’ defense can win this game against a below-average quarterback.

Bears +8 (-110 / DraftKings) — 1 unit

Bears @ Lions, 1 PM EST

Bear with me on this one — pun intended. The Bears are terrible, sure, and the Lions are fantastic, yes. But the Bears are 3-3 over their past six games, granted, those three wins came against the Commanders, Raiders and Panthers. But they covered this spread in two of those three losses, including a game against a division rival in the Minnesota Vikings (19-13).

I’m going to use this spot to buy low on a Bears team that is getting Justin Fields back, has a new pass rush weapon (Montez Sweat) that has played well for them so far, and has had a few extra days to prepare for this game, since they last played on November 9.

I like Chicago’s matchup here with Jaylon Johnson mirroring Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Chicago is also pretty stout against the run, believe it or not. They rank second in all of football in EPA per rush on the defensive side.

I like the Bears to keep this one close. We’ll see how this turns out for me.

Other Picks We Like

Alexander Mattison, over 9.5 RUSH attempts (-110 / FanDuel) — 0.5 units

Vikings @ Broncos, 8:15 PM EST

Ausar Thompson, over 9.5 REB (-118 / FanDuel) — 0.75 units

Pistons @ Raptors, 4:00 PM EST

Record Tracker

Mitch’s Favorites: 7-12 (-4.1 units)

Ani’s Favorites: 8-12 (-2.9 units)

All Picks: 30-46 (-9.8 units) 🤮