Sunday Funday

Gambling is like basketball; it’s a game of runs. So it would feel wrong not to share that if you removed Cam Thomas’ atrocious, pitiful, disgusting night, I’m 8-0 on my last eight picks.

Jaren Jackson Jr. (20+ PTS) dropped 21 in a blowout loss on Friday night. Derrick White (15+ PTS) soared past his mark, finishing as the leading scorer from both teams with 30. Trae Young ended up not playing, and you can’t lose if they don’t play.

I’m now finally back above water (+0.6 units) for the season, which I must say is quite impressive given the Thomas and Clint Capela disasters, which lost me a combined 7.8 units. I’ll take it.

A Football Sunday is sure to bring this unblemished record of late to a screeching halt, but oh well…

Let’s ride.

Record Tracker 📈

Mitch’s Favorites: 25-27 (+0.6 units) 👀

Ani’s Favorites: 25-21 (+7.6 units) 🔥

All Other Picks: 38-42 (-0.4 units) 😅

Overall: 88-90 (+7.8 units) 💰

Mitch’s Favorite Picks 🔒

Josh Allen, over 33.5 RUSH yards (-110 / FanDuel) — 2 units | Josh Allen, 50+ RUSH yards (+220 / FanDuel) — 0.75 units

Bills @ Chiefs, 4:25 PM EST

In five career games against Kansas City (including the playoffs), Allen has hit this mark in all but one game (he had 32 rushing yards). In those five games, he’s averaging 9.8 attempts and 57.8 rushing yards per game.

Whenever the Bills play a big game, Allen always seems to be more of a threat to use his legs.

Over the past two seasons, Allen has faced a playoff team 16 times. In those 16 games, he averaged 53 rushing yards. In games against non-playoff teams, that number dips to 39.5.

He’s certainly running less this year (28.5 yards per game this year vs. 46.3 over the past two years), but he’s gone over this mark in three of his last five games, including 81 yards against the playoff-bound Eagles.

I think 33.5 will hit easily, and given his tendency to use his legs against better opponents, 50+ is worth a play, as well. I’d even put a sprinkle on 70+ at +550 (FanDuel).

Courtland Sutton, anytime TD (+195 / FanDuel) — 1 unit

Broncos @ Chargers, 4:25 PM EST

First and foremost, the Chargers’ secondary is horrendous. They allow the ninth-highest EPA/Dropback and the sixth-most passing touchdowns per game.

Sutton has clearly established himself as Russell Wilson’s favorite target. He’s been a touchdown machine this year, finding the end zone in six of his last seven contests and in nine of 12 games on the season. If he’s gonna keep that momentum going, it’ll be against a team like the Chargers.

Other Picks We Like

*Ja’Marr Chase, over 68.5 REC yards (-110 / FanDuel) — 1 unit

*Ja’Marr Chase, 80+ REC yards (+148 / FanDuel) — 0.5 units

*Ja’Marr Chase, 100+ REC yards (+310 / FanDuel) — 0.25 units

Colts @ Bengals, 1 PM EST

*Gabe Davis, over 40.5 REC yards (-110 / FanDuel) — 1 unit

*Gabe Davis, 50+ REC yards (+128 / FanDuel) — 0.5 units

*Gabe Davis, 70+ REC yards (+270 / Fanduel) — 0.25 units

Bills @ Chiefs, 4:25 PM EST

Kyle Pitts, over 35.5 REC yards (-110 / FanDuel) — 0.75 units

Buccaneers at Falcons, 1 PM EST

Cole Kmet, over 35.5 REC yards (-110 / FanDuel) — 0.75 units

Lions @ Bears, 1 PM EST

Texans -3 (-116 / FanDuel) — 1 unit

Texans @ Jets, 1 PM EST

*These are Ani’s favorite plays today, but he was too under the weather to do a full write-up for them.