TANKsgiving Weekend

NFL Sunday on Thanksgiving weekend is like a fever dream. You’ve likely had a nice string of days off, stuffing your face with copious amounts of calories and downing an abundance of alcohol. You’ve probably taken fewer than 10,000 steps over the past 3-4 days combined, unless you’re one of those people (Turkey Trotters).

@slamminsammyswank

The 1st person to marry into a turkey trot family 🦃🏃‍♂️🏃‍♀️ #turkeytrot #thanksgiving #family

Now you have one final day of glory until you’re forced to return to work tomorrow for the laziest four-week stretch of the year.

We didn’t have as good of a night as we had hoped on Wednesday, but we can’t complain. We finished 5-4, had a couple close misses (looking at you, Giannis), and still finished up 1.9 units. Carried us over nicely through Thanksgiving Day and Rivalry Day yesterday.

Now we’re back to our regularly scheduled programming. Let’s ride.

Record Tracker

Mitch’s Favorites: 14-15 (-0.05 units) 😐

Ani’s Favorites: 10-14 (-3.1 units) 🙁

All Other Picks: 26-25 (+3.5 units) 🤑

Overall: 50-54 (+0.3 units) 👍

Mitch’s Favorite Picks

Tank Dell, over 4.5 REC (-140 / FanDuel) — 1.5 units

Jaguars @ Texans, 1 PM EST

I’ve been conducting the Tank Dell Hype Train since before this year’s NFL Draft. First, he has an all-time name. Tank Dell? Doesn’t fit his build (5’10”, 165), but fits perfectly for an NFL receiver. Second, he’s just fun to watch and really, really good.

Dell flew under the radar as far as rookie WRs go. He was the ninth receiver taken in the 2023 NFL Draft and was never seemingly mentioned with the big names: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers. Now he’s second in receiving yards and touchdowns amongst all rookie pass catchers.

Dell has formed a strong connection with his fellow rookie teammate, QB CJ Stroud, especially over the past three games as they both start to come into their own:

Nov. 5 vs. Tampa Bay — 11 targets, 6 receptions, 114 yards, 2 TD

Nov. 12 @ Cincinnati — 14 targets, 6 receptions, 56 yards, TD

Nov. 19 vs. Arizona — 10 targets, 8 receptions, 149 yards, TD

Dell has gotten double-digit looks in each of the past three contests, and with Noah Brown officially ruled out, I can’t see that changing in a tough division matchup against the first-place Jaguars. The juice is pretty steep on this, but I’m willing to put 1.5 units on it to negate that a bit given how low the total is.

Bengals +2.5 (-110 / FanDuel) — 1 unit | Bengals ML +120 (DraftKings) — 0.75 units

Steelers @ Bengals, 1 PM EST

Taking the Bengals to win outright after losing a top-five quarterback in the NFL? Sure.

Last week, I picked against the Steelers in a road divisional matchup with the other team starting an extremely inexperienced quarterback. This week, I’m picking against the Steelers in a road divisional matchup with the other team starting an extremely inexperienced quarterback.

Jake Browning is probably not very good, but there’s also not much tape on him, which can be used to the Bengals’ advantage.

The Steelers, again, are simply not a good football team. They’ve been out-gained by 875 yards and have a -29 point differential, yet they sit at 6-4 on the season. There were also some reports swirling around that receiver Diontae Johnson and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick got into a “heated argument” in the locker room after the team’s loss last week. Two days later, the team fired Offensive Coordinator Matt Canada. This could all prove to be the start of a rest-of-the-season downfall, or perhaps this sparks a turnaround in regards to on-field performance. I wouldn’t take my chances, so I’m going to ride with the Bengals here and take the points and the outright win.

Ani’s Favorite Picks

Michael Pittman Jr., over 70.5 REC yards (-113 / FanDuel) — 1.5 units | 100+ REC yards (+255 / DraftKings) — 0.25 units

Buccaneers @ Colts, 1 PM EST

Coming off a bye, the Colts have an excellent chance to keep their playoff hopes alive. Buffalo has a tough matchup against the Eagles and the Steelers are spiraling. The Colts are next in line for that third and final Wild Card spot.

When you need a win, it’s usually a good idea to put the ball in the hands of your best players. And that’s what the Colts have been doing. From Weeks 6 though 10, Pittman was seventh in the NFL in targets. He’s hit this 70.5 mark in three of the past five games — two of which came against top-tier pass defenses.

The Bucs are 25th in EPA/Dropback on defense, so Pittman should be able to rack up the yards today, which is why I also think 100+ yards is worth a sprinkle.

CJ Stroud, over 272.5 PASS yards (-113 / FanDuel) — 1 unit

Jaguars @ Texans, 1 PM EST

Stroud has been on fire the past three weeks, throwing for 336 yards, 356 yards and 470 yards, averaging a staggering 9.84 Y/A. I don’t see any reason why that trend would change this week against a tough Jaguars defense.

Even if his efficiency isn’t what it was these past three weeks (67.8 completion percentage), the volume should be. The Jaguars are solid against the pass (7th in EPA/Dropback), but Stroud looks every bit of an elite quarterback 11 weeks into his rookie campaign.

This is the second highest total amongst this week’s games, so lots of yards should be expected. Given Stroud’s performance the past three weeks, I like betting on him to continue that hot streak.

Other Picks We Like

Texans ML +102 (DraftKings) — 0.75 units

Jaguars @ Texans, 1 PM EST

Jaylen Warren, 80+ RUSH yards (+370 / DraftKings) — 0.4 units

Steelers @ Bengals, 1 PM EST

Derrick Henry, anytime TD (+110 / DraftKings) — 1 unit

Panthers @ Titans, 1 PM EST

Kyren Williams, over 60.5 RUSH yards (-113 / FanDuel) — 0.75 units

Rams @ Cardinals, 4:05 PM EST

Trenton Irwin, over 23.5 REC yards (-105 / DraftKings) — 0.5 units

Steelers @ Bengals, 1 PM EST