Will Levis Wears the Pants

Two horrendous beats in two days of Sharpshooters.

Washington Huskies. Welcome to the list.

Can’t say I expected anything else. Washington had every chance in the world to win this game by 20+ points. Instead, they won by seven, failing to cover the 8.5-point line. Here’s a few things that stuck out when thinking of what to blame this failure to cover on — it gets worse as it goes on, trust me.

The Huskies had three fourth-down penalties all in Utah territory: A 15-yard gain on 4th and 5 to the Utah 19-yard-line called back for holding; A delay of game on another 4th and 5 from the Utah 16-yard-line. They ended up kicking a field goal; And a 17-yard completion on a 4th and 4 to the Utah 26-yard-line called back for an ineligible man downfield. Not including those three possessions, they had the ball eight times. They scored a touchdown on four of those and a field goal on another. It’s safe to assume they would’ve scored a touchdown — at the very least a field goal — on at least one of those three possessions, if not all three. Brutal.

The last of those other eight possessions was a blocked 32-yard field goal with 1:38 to go that would’ve given them a ten-point lead and the cover. Brutal-er.

Washington LB Alphonzo Tuputala was coasting to the end zone for an easy pick six after picking off Bryson Barnes but dropped the ball to celebrate right before crossing the goal line. Utah recovered. Washington was able to get a safety on the next play, but failed to score on their ensuing possession. A pick six there instead of a safety would’ve been five more points. Fast math tells me Washington would’ve won by 12 in that case and, thus, covered. Brutal-est.

I am in desperate need of some wins today to dig me out of this enormous trench I’m in. We went 1-6 yesterday. Disgusting. Vomit. Dogshit.

Luckily, Pete is making his Sharpshooters debut to lend me a hand.

Pete’s Favorite Picks

DK Metcalf, over 66.5 REC yards (-115 / DraftKings) — 1 unit

Commanders @ Seahawks, 4:25 PM EST

Josh Harris is the Commanders’ new primary owner but he’s invited like 20 other investors to join the fun. Magic Johnson’s a part of the crew. So is the Santo Domingo family, which has a combined net worth of more than $10 billion (I bet they have some fun Christmases at that household). But with the way he’s played against Washington this year, it wouldn’t be all that shocking to learn that Philadelphia’s AJ Brown has a bit of a stake in Washington’s NFL franchise, too.

So why bring up Brown here? Well, because he and DK Metcalf play a similar style, and while Brown’s going at an MVP level right now and Metcalf definitely ain’t, DK’s got a great chance of going TF off on Sunday (so many initials/abbreviations in that sentence, LOL OMG).

In two games versus the Commanders this season, Brown had 175 and 130 receiving yards. Again, he’s special, and Jalen Hurts is much better than Geno Smith. But I do think there’s something to the Commanders’ DBs having issues with bigger, bully-like wideouts (Drake London, for example, had 125 yards in his game against Washington, which is by far his best total in 2023, and Darren Waller — who’s basically a receiver that has the words tight end on his business card — had 98).

Lastly, Metcalf had just one grab a week ago, so I’ve gotta think getting him involved will be a point of emphasis for Seattle. FWIW, I love this play and hope it gets me off to a 1-0 start in this newsletter.

Jets -1.5 (-110 / FanDuel) — 1 unit

Jets @ Raiders, 8:20 PM EST

I understand that Josh McDaniels is basically Satan with a visor and a slightly better grasp of running NFL offenses, but damn, I’ve never seen an NFL team celebrate a win that got them to 4-5 like the Raiders did last week. In their first game without McDaniels as their coach, Vegas destroyed the hapless Giants and then smoked cigars in the locker room like they had just clinched a spot in the Super Bowl. 

It was at that moment I knew I was going to fade them the following week – regardless of their opponent. Even if that opponent was, oh, I don’t know, hmm, let’s choose a random team here, like… the Jets!

Shit, their opponent really is the Jets, who are only slightly less hapless than the Giants, at least offensively. Zach Wilson was horrendous on Monday night versus the Chargers, but New York’s defense was as effective as their QB was poor. And this week, that defense gets to face a rookie signal caller making his third pro start in Aidan O’Connell. 

I bet there are lots of bettors out there who will happily take the suddenly vibing Raiders as underdogs against the Jets, BUT I’M NOT ONE OF THEM. I have no plans on watching this contest, but I do plan on feeling quite smart when I check the score after and New York wins by a score of, roughly, 13-9.

Mitch’s Favorite Picks

Texans +5.5 (-105 / DraftKings) — 1 unit

Texans @ Bengals, 1 PM EST

It’s no secret that I need a win. My first two nights have been disastrous and filled with horrible beats. The process is sound, the result has not been.

The Bengals are coming off a massive win against the Bills and have a Thursday Night Football date with the Ravens next week. With Ja’Marr Chase likely not 100 percent and the Bengals prepping for a short week, this smells awfully like a trap game.

The Texans have proved to be a competitive team, and CJ Stroud is having one of the best rookie-QB seasons we’ve ever seen. They have had no issue moving the ball, and it’s tough to see that being any different today against a Bengals defense that has been at the hands of some good fortune recently. The Bengals’ defense has the 27th-best PFF grade through the first 10 weeks, while the Texans’ offense sits at the number eight spot and is top ten in EPA per play.

I’d even go as much to sprinkle a little on the Texans money line at +200.

Falcons -2.5 (-105 / FanDuel)

Falcons @ Cardinals, 1 PM EST

This line is definitely fishy, but the Cardinals are — not to mince words — horrible. They rank 29th in offense and 31st in defense, according to PFF. Even with Kyler Murray returning, it’s far from a guarantee he returns to his 2021 form. Murray hasn’t played football in almost a year, and even when he did play last year, he wasn’t great. I’d expect it to take some time for him to get his sea legs (i.e. Deshaun Watson), especially being surrounded by such little talent. 

The Falcons have a chance to end the night tied for first in the NFC South if the Vikings can take care of business against the New Orleans Saints. Taylor Heinicke isn’t great — he’s probably not even good — but he’s almost undoubtedly better than Desmond Ridder. I know Arthur Smith is likely a double agent, but I still think the Falcons are a fine team and have more than enough firepower to handle the woeful Cardinals in Kyler’s return.

DeAndre Ayton, over 11.5 REB (-115 / FanDuel)

Trail Blazers @ Lakers, 10 PM EST

This one is pretty straightforward. DeAndre Ayton is a hoarder on the glass. He’s averaging 12.9 RPG so far this season. The Lakers allow the eighth-most rebounds per game to opposing centers. The juice isn’t absurd. Take the money.

Ani’s Favorite Picks

Will Levis, over 222.5 passing yards (-110 / FanDuel); DeAndre Hopkins, over 61.5 REC yards (-110 / FanDuel) — 1 unit each

Titans @ Buccaneers, 1 PM EST

The Buccaneers defense is giving up the second-most passing yards per game, and if Levis is going to hit this over, Hopkins is going to be the one helping him do it.

Hopkins has hit this number in three of his last five contests -- missing it by two yards in one of them.

Levis has thrown for 262 yards and 238 yards in his first two career games, respectively. And he did so against two much better coverage units in the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Atlanta Falcons. 

Brandon Aiyuk, over 66.5 REC yards (-110, FanDuel) — 1 unit

49ers @ Jaguars, 1 PM EST

Deebo Samuel is back, but Aiyuk is likely going to remain Purdy’s favorite target. Last week against the Steelers, Aiyuk hauled in all eight of his targets for 129 yards and two scores. 

The Jaguars have allowed pass catchers like Jonnu Smith, Tank Dell, Michael Pittman, Skyy Moore, Stefon Diggs and Diontae Johnson to all surpass this total in their respective matchups this year. With Deebo back on the field to take some attention away from Aiyuk, he should have no issue getting to 67 receiving yards.

Other Props We Like

Bradley Beal, over 27.5 PRA (-115 / FanDuel) — 1 unit

Zay Flowers, over 4.5 REC (+114 / FanDuel) — 0.5 units

Jordan Addison, over 52.5 REC yards (-110 / FanDuel) — 1 unit

Trenton Irwin, over 34.5 REC yards (-110 / FanDuel) — 1 unit

Brandon Powell, REC yards ladder

Over 23.5 REC yards (-110 / FanDuel) — 1 unit; 40+ REC yards (+240 / FanDuel) — 0.5 units; 60+ REC yards (+680 / FanDuel) — 0.25 units

Record Tracker

Mitch’s Favorites: 1-4 (-3.5 units)

Ani’s Favorites: 2-1 (+2.8 units)

All Picks: 8-11 (-3.04 units)