The Worst Beat of My Life

Now that I’ve had more than 24 hours to sit with this, I think I’m ready to talk about it. The worst beat I’ve ever suffered in my life. I know people say things like that all the time, but I don’t think I’m exaggerating in the slightest.

There are lots of bad beats where the player/team looks like they’re going to be on pace to hit the bet early on in the contest. There are also tons of bad beats where the player or team collapses and lose the cover on a last second play or end their night shy by just a yard, strikeout, catch, point, assist, etc.

Then there’s the bets where the player covered the bet, then lost it later on in the game.

The bet was Josh Allen, over 33.5 rushing yards, and it was a two-unit play.

Allen had 23 rushing yards just three minutes into the second quarter. This looked like a lock, but I’ve been around this shit long enough to know that nothing is guaranteed. Regardless, I was feeling good.

Heading into the fourth quarter, Allen had… 28 rushing yards. Not feeling too hot anymore, but only one short scramble away from picking up the over.

After gaining a single yard on a scramble with 11:31 left in the game, he sat at 29 rushing yards. The game was a close one, too. I looked at Ani and said, “I need him to get the over, then need the Chiefs to score in some capacity so they’re ahead. I can’t have the Bills winning or they’re going to take knees to run the clock out.”

With 3:41 left, my heart racing, Allen took off out of the pocket to try and pick up a first down on his own on 3rd and 2. He was tackled from behind and fell forward. They gave him five yards. 34 rushing yards on the day. We got it. First objective: Complete.

The issue was the Bills were in striking distance and were bound to score in some capacity. They ended up kicking a field goal to go up 20-17 with 1:57 remaining. Plenty of time for the best quarterback in football to complete the second objective.

With 1:28 left, the Chiefs pulled off one of the greatest plays I’ve never seen (I went into the other room to charge my phone and missed it). But I ran back out to see Kadarius Toney crossing the goal line and completing objective two for me.

We’re in business.

Yes… Kadarius Toney lined up offsides, and the touchdown was called back. The next three passes were all incomplete. The Bills got the ball back with 55 seconds left. Two kneels incoming.

If you’re not aware, a kneel down — for some ungodly reason — counts as a negative rushing yard. Do the math. Two kneel downs = two negative rushing yards. 34-2 = 32.

He didn’t cover.

Ani was in shock watching with me. Neither of us really had any words after watching that unfold. The only thing I could really muster was, “That was the worst beat of my life.” And it was. Til the next one.

Oh well… Let’s ride.

Record Tracker 📈

Mitch’s Favorites: 26-29 (-0.2 units) 😐

Ani’s Favorites: 25-27 (+4.1 units) 🥖

All Other Picks: 40-43 (+0.0 units) 😑

Overall: 91-99 (+3.9 units) 👍

Mitch’s Favorite Picks 🔒

Jayston Tatum, over 26.5 PTS (-108 / FanDuel) — 2 units | Jayson Tatum, 30+ PTS (+155 / FanDuel) — 1 unit | Jayston Tatum, 35+ PTS (+450 / FanDuel) — 0.4 units

Cavaliers @ Celtics, 7:30 PM EST

While Tatum’s scoring has dipped a bit from last season (27.5 vs. 30.1 PPG), I love this matchup against a Cavaliers team sans Evan Mobley. The Cavs are going to have a tough time defending Tatum on the perimeter and around the basket.

The Cavs are on the second leg of a back-to-back and the Celtics have been off since December 8th. Tatum should be fresh and ready to exploit a Cavs’ defense that is, without Mobley on the floor, in just the 39th percentile for points per possession (76th percentile with him out there).

Anthony Davis, over 13.5 REB (-105 / DraftKings) — 1 unit | Anthony Davis, 16+ REB (+180 / FanDuel) — 0.5 units

Lakers @ Mavericks, 7:30 PM EST

This line looks steep, but Davis has been a monster on the glass this year, averaging nearly 13 rebounds per game.

Over the past five games, Davis has had 15, 15, 14, 14, and 16 rebounds. The Mavericks allow the fifth-most rebounds per game to opposing big men, and with the total set at 232.5, there should be lots of points and, therefore, lots of shots, which are just potential rebound opportunities.

Ani’s Favorite Picks 🔒

DeMar DeRozan, over 29.5 PTS + AST (-115 / FanDuel) — 1.5 units

Nuggets @ Bulls, 8 PM EST

DeRozan’s usage has gone way up in the last couple of weeks with the injury to Zach Lavine. He’s hit this prop in four straight games and has at least 10 assists in three of the last four as well.

The Bulls are on the back end of a back-to-back, so they might be a bit sluggish, and the Nuggets are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA. The game total is 219.5, and the Bulls are 7.5-point underdogs, so DeRozan will need to play a big role for Chicago tonight if they want any chance at pulling off the upset.

Both Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray are questionable to play for the Nuggets, and if either of them is ruled out, I like this prop even more.

Bradley Beal, over 18.5 PTS (-110 / FanDuel) — 1 unit 

Warriors @ Suns, 10 PM EST

Tonight was supposed to be the debut of the new big three in Phoenix, but Kevin Durant has already been ruled out. Beal will be the number two option to Devin Booker on offense tonight and will most likely play at least 30-35 minutes.

In the two games this season that Beal has played at least 30 minutes, he’s taken 17 shots in both and hit this point mark in one of them. With the Warriors defense focused on stopping Booker, I expect Beal to be aggressive offensively tonight.

Other Picks We Like

Luka Doncic, 40+ PTS (+290 / FanDuel) — 0.5 units

Lakers @ Mavericks, 7:30 PM EST

Nikola Jokic, triple-double (+135 / FanDuel) — 0.5 units

Nuggets @ Bulls, 8 PM EST

Coby White, over 18.5 PTS (-110 / FanDuel) — 1 unit

Nuggets @ Bulls, 8 PM EST

Derrick White, over 18.5 PTS + AST (-115 / FanDuel) — 1 unit

Cavaliers @ Celtics, 7:30 PM EST